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Pinterest Stock: Price to Sales Risky

Published by beth.technology on May 16, 2019

Last month, I wrote an article on how mobile application companies hide user attrition and how Pinterest and Snap bury important key metrics in 10-Ks and S-1 filings. One thing I stated is that financials in tech companies can be misleading when not accompanied by scrutiny of the underlying business. For example, there are a couple of terms that are important to social media growth. I italicized growth because I presume investors will demand growth from Pinterest following the IPO and the nearly 50% rise in stock price we’ve seen over the last month. Interesting enough, despite the stock climbing…

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Fundamental Stock Analysis Webinar: May 22nd at 4:30 pm EST

Fundamental Stock Analysis Webinar: May 22nd at 4:30 pm EST

Published by beth.technology on May 16, 2019

On May 22nd at 4:30 pm Eastern, join four fundamental stock analysts on a webinar where they will discuss stock picks, trends and strategies to help strengthen your personal portfolio. Beth Kindig will discuss how to pick a solid tech growth stock and how to hedge in down market. Specifically, Beth Kindig will discuss the differences between how the financial industry defines growth and how the tech industry defines growth, and why a blend of both is essential for picking stocks in the number one growth sector. Beth predicted the biggest stock drop in history in Q2 2018 with Facebook’s…

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Uber IPO: Record-Breaking For All the Wrong Reasons

Published by beth.technology on May 9, 2019

By now, investors know that Lyft’s ride-sharing IPO didn’t reach $100 per share like many of the media talking heads stated it would, and this will likely weight on Uber’s IPO. Two weeks prior to Lyft’s IPO, I had warned that the risk listed in the prospectus, which warned Lyft may not become profitable, was more than fine print. Ride-sharing companies use investment money to lower the cost of the ride to create demand, which means the ride you take in a Lyft or Uber is not profitable, and will likely never be profitable. Not one analyst rated Lyft as…

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Update on $ROKU – Will Roku Miss Earnings?

Update on $ROKU – Will Roku Miss Earnings?

Published by beth.technology on May 8, 2019

Will Roku miss earnings? I believe Roku will miss earnings at times, but for the big picture, Roku is at the center of an important trend in advertising and this will make for decent returns now and sizable returns in the future. I also don’t play the earnings game often with stocks as my analysis does not change monthly or quarterly. My conviction on Roku is high and can withstand trade war news or a fledgling quarter, which is normal for smaller companies on the edge of incipient trends. What Investors Got Wrong With Roku The first thing Wall Street…

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Why Robotaxis in 2020 Are Impossible and More Truths About Autonomous Vehicles

Published by beth.technology on May 3, 2019

This last week, we saw Tesla take advantage of the lack of information available on autonomous vehicle technology. Unfortunately, the facts around autonomous vehicles are elusive as PR copywriters fuel journalists, who are churning out content to meet deadlines. For starters, to get machines to respond like humans, within milliseconds, is one of the most difficult problems that technologists have aimed to solve. The truth about autonomous vehicles includes regulations, production cycles, and delays in implementation. I predicted when I wrote my analysis six months ago, that the gap between investor expectations (perception) and commercial deployments (reality) had created an…

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Smoke and Mirrors: How Snap and Pinterest Hide User Attrition

Smoke and Mirrors: How Snap and Pinterest Hide User Attrition

Published by beth.technology on April 23, 2019

Social media companies today are using smoke and mirrors to hide an important key metric. I’m going to pick on Pinterest first because the social media company recently revealed these issues in its S-1 Filing, and meanwhile, Pinterest stock saw a 25% pop on the day of its public debut. To be fair, this 25% IPO pop pales in comparison to Snap’s 135% stock price increase from December lows. My best guess is that investors are hoping for the next Facebook, or perhaps they aren’t reading beyond the financials, which are on page 13 of the prospectus, compared to the…

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Alphabet Stock: Keep a Close Eye on Third-Party Ads

Published by beth.technology on April 9, 2019

Towards the end of March, AdWeek broke the news that “Google Mulls Third-Party Ad-Targeting Restrictions.” Criteo’s stock dropped 30% and TradeDesk saw a 15% drop while Alphabet’s stock showed the least impact at 5%. I believe the market did not fully understand the implications of what advertising experts and insiders had leaked to AdWeek. It is my prediction Alphabet will have to let go of roughly $5 billion in quarterly revenue if the company aims to become a leader in artificial intelligence and sensitive data.

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Nvidia Versus Xilinx: Heavy Hitter AI Stocks

Published by beth.technology on April 4, 2019

This week, I revisited Nvidia for the first time since the crypto bust. If you’re a regular reader of mine, then you’ll remember that I defended Nvidia as having a strong fundamental story due to their developer following and the GPU-powered cloud. We’ve seen the GPU-powered cloud story take shape with the recent acquisition of Mellanox. However, no analysis on Nvidia would be complete without a discussion on Xilinx, which is what I wrote about this week.

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Apple Stock: A New Era of Mobile Saturation

Published by beth.technology on March 22, 2019

There are many positives to Apple’s story, with a wearables business up over 50%, cloud services up 40%, and Apple News readership at 85 million active monthly users. Apple Music is also now the number one streaming service in the United States over Spotify. Most importantly, Apple has a media announcement planned for March 25th, which will add to the growing services revenue. Investors should exercise caution, however, as the broader mobile market is slowing down and is nearing saturation.

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Lyft: Risky Valuation and No Intellectual Property

Published by beth.technology on March 14, 2019

Silicon Valley produces a lot of winners; however, I believe investors should be careful with both of these IPOs due to bubble-like valuations, accelerating net losses, and a lack of geographic expansion opportunities. Yet, another concern is the liquidity event the large cap IPO provides, and the level of PR that can be bought leading up to the IPO, which will likely focus on the growing sales…

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“Algorithms are not biased; data is biased” – MWC 2019

“Algorithms are not biased; data is biased” – MWC 2019

Published by beth.technology on March 7, 2019

AI may seem like an auxiliary technology to how we live our daily lives today, however, it will soon be the primary driver across the tech industry. PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates the world economy will reach an additional 15.7 trillion in value by 2030 due to artificial intelligence. To put this into perspective, the top 5 technology companies today have a combined value of about $4 trillion, which includes Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Facebook. Over the next decade, AI will drive a market 5x the size of tech’s current global spend. Although this growth is exciting on many levels, the panelists at MWC 2019 voiced concerns about the handling of inherent biases that comes from data, as clearly discrimination by age, race, gender, education or other factors within audience segmentation is counterproductive to the advancement of society that AI promises.

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MWC 2019: A Dose of Reality on 5G, Those Foldable Phones and Bitcoin Has a Serious Competitor

Published by beth.technology on March 7, 2019

The financing firm Greensill puts the total cost for 5G at $2.7 trillion through the end of 2020. The issue is that it’ll take a few years to see any returns, which will put networks in the red until applications catch up. This, of course, is the fine print to 5G that the lights, camera and action of the booths at MWC didn’t portray. In fact, there was a panel where Mike Fries, the CEO of Liberty Global, pointed out that carriers in Europe have not recouped costs on 4G yet. “You’ve had 10 straight years of declining mobile revenues in Europe with the biggest issue being price,’ he said.

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Facebook Stock: Too Good to Be True

Published by beth.technology on February 21, 2019

Facebook has financial statements that Wall Street dreams are made of. Profit margins are at 40 percent, free cash flow outperforms due to low capex, and annual growth exceeds 20 percent year-over-year. In fact, FB posted 35 percent growth this past year with lots of runway to go. Meanwhile many of its FAANG peers struggle with high capex (Netflix) and diminishing growth (Apple).

To put it simply, Facebook’s cash flow and profit margins are not only some of the best in the S&P 500, but the best in the world. The ad dollar machine has incredible inertia and advertisers simply can’t turn away. If you are looking at the income statements, then you have every reason to go all-in on this company.

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Pure Play Tech Stocks to Benefit from IaaS Growth

Published by beth.technology on February 8, 2019

Hybrid is what will drive near future adoption for IaaS. This means security is still the dominant concern while data accuracy and productivity are the primary benefits to IaaS. Therefore, small and mid-cap companies that assist with either of these can benefit from IaaS growth. Below are a few of the more popular stocks in the cloud space. Although it is my belief some of these are overbought, and will have to prove themselves if we do go through a bear market, it most certainly doesn’t hurt to have them on the radar and to look for the right entry point.

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Best Bet for Tech Stocks in 2019? Secular IaaS.

Published by beth.technology on February 8, 2019

On a micro-level, mobile is hitting saturation, social media faces privacy regulations, chip makers are getting hurt in the trade war, and meanwhile, 5G, artificial intelligence, and autonomous vehicles are too nascent to see returns in the near term. This is one reason I continue to hammer on IaaS as a safe, secular bet. Companies are going through a major transition right now by transferring work loads into the cloud.

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Autonomous Vehicles: Fact vs. Fiction at CES 2019

Autonomous Vehicles: Fact vs. Fiction at CES 2019

Published by beth.technology on January 17, 2019

Nvidia and Intel had a different tone at CES this year in regards to autonomous vehicles. Nvidia’s launch of DRIVE AutoPilot is a smart strategy to boost sales in the short term while the AV future of Level 3 or Level 4 sorts itself out. The Mercedes CLA class is another great example of a strong Level 2 automation strategy. Intel is clearly betting on China, especially Baidu, although China is not …

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CES 2019 – AI Assistants Are Multiplying, Are We Privacy-Ready?

Published by beth.technology on January 14, 2019

To experience CES this year was to experience the sensation of exiting a large football stadium. You essentially walk in a continuous herd of over 180,000 people. There were many noteworthy displays and freebies, as long as you don’t mind standing in line for two hours or having hundreds of people blocking your view. (The only line I stood in was for Starbucks). I’m also not one for flying taxis or the never-ending release of new television screens. At this point, if you buy an 8K television, it will take years for content producers to catch up to 8K content…

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Here’s Why Microsoft Stock Could Overtake Amazon on Cloud Infrastructure

Published by beth.technology on December 6, 2018

The cloud infrastructure market is expected to reach $83.5 billion by 2021, up from $40.8 billion in 2018. Amazon Web Services was launched in 2006, which means it took twelve years for the infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) market to reach $40 billion – but will take only three years for the next $40 billion to accumulate. Therefore, the investment window for cloud infrastructure stocks is far from over. The IaaS segment is currently Amazon’s most profitable revenue stream comprising 55% of its quarterly operating profit, and is also the top growth-driver for Microsoft at 89%. Considering these are two of the three…

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GM Stock Risky Due to Autonomous Vehicle Bubble

GM Stock Risky Due to Autonomous Vehicle Bubble

Published by beth.technology on November 29, 2018

This week, General Motors Company cut more than 14,000 salaried staff and factory workers with plans to close seven factories worldwide in what Bloomberg calls a “sweeping realignment to prepare for a future of electric and self-driving vehicles.” Unfortunately for GM, and their employees, the future of autonomous vehicles is much farther off than what the company represents. Investors in GM stock should be cautious, and realistic, as to when new revenue streams will occur, as cutting costs, even to the tune of a net savings of $4.5 billion, might not be enough to wait out the innovation cycle. In…

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Holding Nvidia Stock Will Pay Off Due to Two Impenetrable Moats

Published by beth.technology on November 15, 2018

Tech stocks are getting slammed right now, and Nvidia may be one of Wall Street’s biggest losers in the sell-off that began last month and continued into this week. Nvidia’s stock has seen a 30-day high of $292 and a whiplash low of $176 – equaling a 40% plunge in the matter of four weeks. Today, it stands at $197.60. Economic indicators and earnings from tech companies have not exactly warranted this reaction from the market. Fears the semi-conductor industry is slowing down based off Advanced Micro Devices earnings report were negated when Intel reported strong Q3 earnings. And while…

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Prediction: Here’s Why Roku Will Be The Next Tech Darling

Prediction: Here’s Why Roku Will Be The Next Tech Darling

Published by beth.technology on November 7, 2018

Roku’s earnings report for Q3 is scheduled on a potentially volatile trading day depending on how the broader markets react to the mid-term elections. The uncertainty around this outcome, along with rising rates, geopolitical trade uncertainty, and a host of companies tempering their Q4 outlook has caused a style rotation, which has pummeled tech stocks. Regardless, Roku is a mid-cap growth stock in the tech sector that will continually prove itself against headwinds as the company is poised to become one of the most opportunistic growth stories in the market by 2023. The reason for this is simple: connected TV…

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Can Programmatic Ads Save Spotify?

Published by beth.technology on November 2, 2018

Summary: According to Q3 earnings calls, Spotify may seek to broker user data in order to keep average revenue per user afloat. Known as programmatic advertising, this method of monetizing data to supplement music revenue may be Spotify’s only hope to stave off competitors who nip at the heels of the music-streaming app Portions of this article were originally published September 27th, 2018 under 8 Reasons Spotify will be a Sell Recommendation by 2019 at $184 per share. This analysis has been updated to include the recent partnership with Google and programmatic offering Ad Studio. Half Full or Half Empty? -6%…

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What Everyone Should Know Before Facebook’s Q3 Earnings Call

Published by beth.technology on October 30, 2018

Facebook’s earnings call today may be the most anticipated call of Q3. The stock has tumbled since the last quarterly earnings call from a high of $217 in July to a low of $142. Three months ago, Street analysts did not think this was possible – and many still have price targets at $200. I believe bullish financial analysts are distracted by Facebook’s security costs, news feed fatigue and Instagram while underestimating the most important number on Facebook’s earnings call tomorrow –user growth rate. Background on Facebook’s User Growth Trajectory Facebook’s rampant growth from 2004-2017 was due to a viral…

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The Level 2 Autonomous Vehicle Bubble – Tesla, GM, Audi, BMW, Waymo, Nvidia, and Intel

Published by beth.technology on October 17, 2018

Last month, Autonomous Vehicles fell into the “trough of disillusionment,” which is the downward slope that analyst firm Gartner publishes to show the hype cycle for certain technologies. You can think of this as “winter is coming” for tech products – a time when all of the buzz and excitement finally meets reality (note: artificial intelligence winter is a well-documented thing). The reality for autonomous vehicles includes regulations, production cycles, and delays in implementation for what is an extraordinarily difficult problem to solve – how to get machines to respond like humans at crucial moments. This gap between investor expectations…

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Why Apple Will Never Buy Tesla: Autonomous Vehicles 101

Published by beth.technology on October 9, 2018

It’s understandable if you missed the headlines that Apple may buy Tesla. That piece of speculative news, like most news about Tesla, has been overshadowed by the PR storm that surrounds the CEO’s behavior rather than based on the technology behind the product. Here’s some background information for those who missed it. Simultaneously with the CEO’s investigation for violation SEC law 10b-5, rumors began to circulate that Apple may buy Tesla. Some of these rumors were started by Ross Gerber, a Tesla investor, while others sourced the VC firm Loup Ventures, and the gossip is still being echoed a month…

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Is Spotify a Bandwagon Stock? 8 Key Issues Famous Hedge Funds Are Ignoring

Is Spotify a Bandwagon Stock? 8 Key Issues Famous Hedge Funds Are Ignoring

Published by beth.technology on September 27, 2018

Bandwagons are easy to jump on but it can be hard to decide when it’s time to get off, especially considering Spotify stock has famous hedge funds like Soros Fund Management, Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management, and Louis Bacon’s Capital Management holding sizeable stakes. Since its IPO in April, Spotify has seen an $8 billion rally in market value for an all-time high market cap of $34 billion following Q2 earnings. The bull storyline is that Spotify is the leader in streaming music with nearly 40% of market share in 2017 – which is double what Apple Music holds and…

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Here’s Why Roku Stock Will Surpass $100 In Next Two Years

Published by beth.technology on August 11, 2018

Roku’s stock (ROKU) is getting a lot of attention after it reported stellar second-quarter results due to 57% year-over-year revenue growth to $156.8 million beating the analyst forecast of $141 million. Compare this to 37% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1. However, as I stated in my Q1 article, the platform revenue is where Roku will continue to see a majority of the gains. The video streaming platform revenue was up 96% during the period to $90.3 million with player revenue up 24% to $66.5 million. Some of the analysis below is taken from an article I wrote last quarter on Seeking Alpha. The…

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I Predicted Facebook Would Miss Q2 Earnings: Here’s What Investors Need To Know For Q3

An Industry Insider predicts Facebook's stock would plunge

I Predicted Facebook Would Miss Q2 Earnings: Here’s What Investors Need To Know For Q3

Published by beth.technology on July 27, 2018

This is a crucial time to point out to investors that my predictions were correct. Last April, I published an in-depth analysis on Seeking Alpha along with predictions for Facebook (FB) stock. The analysis urged readers to ignore post-Cambridge Analytica hype as Facebook’s quarterly earnings would miss as a result of GDPR. Specifically, I stated the culprit would be revenue and data sources outside of the Facebook “family of apps.” However, with this article, I’d like to explore this point even further and explain with granularity why the issues have only begun and what Facebook isn’t telling you (source for Facebook…

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The Good, the Bad and the Ugly About Google’s $5 Billion Antitrust Fine

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly About Google’s $5 Billion Antitrust Fine

Published by beth.technology on July 20, 2018

To summarize, the $5 Billion Antitrust Fine on Google is due to the following issues: Google has required manufacturers to pre-install the Google Search app and browser app (Chrome), as a condition for licensing Google’s app store (the Play Store); Google made payments to certain large manufacturers and mobile network operators on condition that they exclusively pre-installed the Google Search app on their devices; and Google has prevented manufacturers wishing to pre-install Google apps from selling even a single smart mobile device running on alternative versions of Android that were not approved by Google (so-called “Android forks”) source: European Commission…

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Oracle Hit From All Sides: Iaas Cloud and Programmatic

Oracle Hit From All Sides: Iaas Cloud and Programmatic

Published by beth.technology on June 25, 2018

Summary: Infrastructure as a service (IaaS) is the fastest growing cloud segment and will continue to be with AI, machine learning and connected cars. Gartner, an authority in tech analysis, placed Oracle in the “niche player quadrant” (not the leader quadrant) for Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) May 22. In addition to IaaS, Oracle’s Data as a Service business model will weaken as marketers fail to get proper consent for ad targeting. Cloud infrastructure is hot right now and for good reason. The world increasingly relies on cloud data centers due to server virtualization, smartphones, movies and entertainment, chatbots, office…

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What Alphabet Won’t Tell You About the GDPR

What Alphabet Won’t Tell You About the GDPR

Published by beth.technology on May 31, 2018

Summary: This analysis answers the following questions: Search is a large driver of revenue and doesn’t require data but what other portions of Alphabet’s advertising model will be affected by the GDPR? How much revenue do the higher risk methods currently contribute to earnings? Where is Alphabet most likely to incur GDPR fines? How will non-personalized ads affect earnings and network sites? Alphabet (GOOG) was announced in 2015 as a holding company to help separate Google’s advertising business from the sprawling investments in Fiber internet, cloud computing, smart home products and connected car products. While these new gadgets and the…

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Long on Roku – Even if they Miss Q1 Earnings

Published by beth.technology on May 8, 2018

Summary: Despite knee jerk volatility, Roku will become a large cap stock in OTT (over-the-top) within 2-5 years. While Pay TV operators continue to bleed subscribers, Roku has the best business model to capitalize on these losses compared to highly fragmented OTT and SVOD competitors. In addition, Roku has maintained competitive vigor as the number one streaming device in the United States while remaining vendor agnostic. Going global will cement this position. Roku (ROKU) stock prices have fluctuated wildly from being one of the hottest stocks in 2017 with a 400% return from the IPO price of $14 to a…

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Facebook’s Challenges Are Much Bigger Than Cambridge Analytica

Facebook’s Challenges Are Much Bigger Than Cambridge Analytica

Published by beth.technology on April 17, 2018

Next month, when General Data Privacy Regulations (GDPR) take effect, there will be a seismic shift across many technology stocks reflecting a private data drought. Facebook is a half a trillion-dollar profit machine because of a business model dependent on first-party data which will come under scrutiny May 25 under the new GDPR policies. Average revenue per user (ARPU) currently stands at $26.76 compared to $4.08 at IPO. With strict policies for data control, consent, erasure and portability, ARPU and earnings will drop significantly. Editor’s note: This article was published on Seeking Alpha on April 17th, 2018 Investors should…

How Investors Use Artificial Intelligence in the Stock Market

How Investors Use Artificial Intelligence in the Stock Market

Published by beth.technology on May 15, 2019

In episode 3 of Tech Lightning Rounds, Beth Kindig goes directly to the source of artificial intelligence expertise and hosts discussions with technologists who specialize in the field. Interviews are held in “lightning round” format, which are rapid interviews with tech experts for immediate depth on each topic. Artificial intelligence makes it possible for machines to learn from experience. To adjust for superior intelligence, the machines are trained as more data is analyzed. Highly publicized uses for AI include chess matches or self-driving cars. The most potent application for artificial intelligence, however, may be the way it’s being used right…

Mastercard Discusses How to Fight Fraud with Artificial Intelligence

Mastercard Discusses How to Fight Fraud with Artificial Intelligence

Published by beth.technology on May 14, 2019

In episode 3 of Tech Lightning Rounds, Beth Kindig goes directly to the source of artificial intelligence expertise and hosts discussions with technologists who specialize in the field. Interviews are held in “lightning round” format, which are rapid interviews with tech experts for immediate depth on each topic. Mastercard pioneered the idea of electronic payments, and in many regards, was the first “fintech” company in the market. With this follows great responsibility, especially as the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners reported a 42% frequency of fraud across small businesses costing an average of 5% of gross revenues. Mastercard is using…

Artificial Intelligence Podcast: Experts Discuss Critical Trends

Artificial Intelligence Podcast: Experts Discuss Critical Trends

Published by beth.technology on May 7, 2019

Artificial intelligence will drive a $15.7 trillion-dollar economy by 2030. To put this in perspective, the top 5 technology companies today have a combined value of $4 trillion, which includes Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Facebook. The annual global technology spend is similar is $3 trillion. Over the next decade AI will drive a market 5x the size of tech’s current global spend and 4x the size of five of the world’s most valuable companies combined. Industries that AI is already transforming include tech, health care, finance, automotive and more. In episode 4 of Tech Lightning Rounds, you’ll hear a…

Helping Firefighters in Mission-Critical Rescues with 5G

Helping Firefighters in Mission-Critical Rescues with 5G

Published by beth.technology on April 25, 2019

In episode 3 of Tech Lightning Rounds, Beth Kindig goes directly to the source of 5G expertise and hosts discussions with technologists who specialize in the field. Interviews are held in “lightning round” format, which are rapid interviews with tech experts for immediate depth on each topic. Qwake Technologies is a testament that real-world problems can be solved with the use of augmented realty and 5G-enabled devices. The company has designed the C-THRU operating system that is designed to help firefighters see in smoke-filled and zero-visibility environments. In episode 3 of Tech Lightning Rounds, Beth Kindig of Intertrust Technologies puts…

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